The global notebook market has experienced fluctuations in recent years, with 2023 being a challenging year. According to TrendForce, the global notebook market is predicted to have struggled in 2023, with annual shipments reaching only 166 million units. The report reveals that the world was hit by high inflation, and the laptop market demand will be weak in 2023. The 166 million unit shipments represent an annual decrease of 10.8%.
In the first half of 2024, as the inventories of major notebook manufacturers are gradually reduced, and under the favourable conditions of slowing inflation, the forecast index for a recent U.S. interest rate cut has risen. If the market expects that the United States will start to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of this year, it will help. The reduction in corporate financing borrowing costs, rising liquidity levels, and the generational change of microsoft systems will promote the system security upgrade of corporate users. This is expected to drive the demand for replacing old notebooks with new ones.
Therefore, TrendForce expects that notebook market demand will improve quarter by quarter this year. It also expects that the global notebook market will show moderate growth, with an annual shipment growth rate of approximately 3.6%, hitting 172 million units.
2023 Global Notebook Market Overview
In 2023, the global notebook market faced significant challenges, including high inflation and an economic downturn, which impacted consumer demand and market growth. TrendForce's research indicates that the market experienced a noticeable recovery in the second quarter, with shipments projected to hit 40.45 million units, marking a pivotal turnaround after six consecutive quarters of decline. However, despite this growth, annual shipments are expected to reach only 166 million units.
Several factors contributed to the dynamics of the global notebook market in 2023. Economic downturn, high inflation, and widening consumer price gaps were among the key challenges that affected market momentum and growth. Also, the persistent impact of the pandemic and delayed recovery further influenced the market, leading to a decrease in annual shipment volumes compared to the previous year.
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Regional and Segment Analysis
TrendForce's reports highlighted regional and segment-specific trends in the global notebook market. Restocking orders for certain notebook models started to surface in several markets, including North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia. The focus in these regions is the low-to-mid-range and budget models due to ongoing economic constraints. The U.S. and Europe were identified as major notebook markets, with their economic outlooks and seasonal purchasing demand impacting market dynamics.
Outlook for this year
Looking ahead, TrendForce projects a potential rebound in the global notebook market this year. There is an expected growth of 2-5% in yearly shipments. The market is anticipated to benefit from healthier inventory metrics and gradually increasing demand. However, it says that issues related to the global consumer environment and economic conditions should persist.
TrendForce also believes that innovative applications of AI are the key to determining the future growth of AI PCs. The agency said that this year's CES brands are mostly focusing on hardware competition. Even if users are willing to buy an AI PC for a try at a price that is more than 50% higher than the average selling price of ordinary notebooks, they return to pragmatism and lack AI killer apps. Under the circumstances, the growth space of AI PC penetration rate will still be relatively limited this year.
The global notebook market faced a challenging year in 2023, with various economic and consumer-related factors influencing its performance. The market experienced a recovery in certain quarters. However, the overall annual shipments are projected to reflect a decline compared to the previous year. The outlook for 2024 suggests the potential for a rebound. Nevertheless, the market is likely to continue facing ongoing challenges. These are mostly issues related to the global economic environment and consumer demand.
Efe Udin is a seasoned tech writer with over seven years of experience. He covers a wide range of topics in the tech industry from industry politics to mobile phone performance. From mobile phones to tablets, Efe has also kept a keen eye on the latest advancements and trends. He provides insightful analysis and reviews to inform and educate readers. Efe is very passionate about tech and covers interesting stories as well as offers solutions where possible.